FraudFactor™ / Fraud Factor™ Definition
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The FraudFactor™ metric, also known as the Fraud Factor™, is a fraud metric that serves as a numerical measure of the likelihood and amount of in a given system. The FraudFactor for the 2000 presidential election is a numerical measure of the likelihood and amount of fraud that was committed in specific Florida counties in the 2000 presidential election between George Bush, Al Gore, and other candidates. The FraudFactor (and Fraud Factor) was defined and first publicized by Michael D. Robbins in November, 2000. The FraudFactor is defined as how many times more "new found votes" Al Gore received than expected in the second machine count, relative to his original vote count, than George Bush received relative to his original vote count. The FraudFactor is used to compute the number of unexpected, or fraudulent, "new found votes" that Al Gore received in the second machine count. Put another way, the FraudFactor reflects how many times more "new found votes" Al Gore received than expected in the second vote count, relative to how many votes George Bush received in the second count and how many votes both candidates received in the first count. Thus, a FraudFactor of 15 indicates that Al Gore received 15 times more "new found votes" than he should have received based on how many "new found votes" George Bush received, and based on the original distribution of votes between Bush and Gore after the first machine count. The FraudFactor ( ff ) is defined as a ratio of two ratios, as follows: ff (Bush, Gore) = ( (Gore2 - Gore1) / Gore1 ) / ( (Bush2 - Bush1) / Bush1 )
The FraudFactor is defined as 1 if Bush1 = Bush2 and Gore1 = Gore2; otherwise, it is undefined if Bush1 = Bush2 or Gore1 = Gore2. The FraudFactor requires further definition if Bush2 < Bush1 or Gore2 < Gore1. Note that (Gore2 - Gore1) is Al Gore's "new found votes" reflected in the state of the paper ballots when they were counted in the second machine count. Likewise, (Bush2 - Bush1) is George Bush's "new found votes" reflected in the state of the paper ballots when they were counted in the second machine count. The expected number of Al Gore's "new found votes" is obtained by dividing Gore's actual number of "new found votes", (Gore2 - Gore1), by the FraudFactor. Gore's unexpected number of additional "new found votes", i.e., "fraud votes", is computed by subtracting the expected number from the actual number of Gore's "new found votes". Similarly, the expected number of George Bush's "new found votes" is obtained by multiplying Bush's actual number of "new found votes", (Bush2 - Bush1), by the Fraud Factor. Bush's unexpected number of additional "new found votes", i.e., "fraud votes", is computed by subtracting the expected number from the actual number of Bush's "new found votes". As the data shows, nearly all of the "fraud votes" have gone to Al Gore. A FraudFactor value of 1.0 indicates that no fraud has occurred. A FraudFactor greater than 1.0 indicates that fraud may have occurred favoring Al Gore, and that Al Gore received ff times as many votes as expected in the second vote count, relative to how many votes George Bush received in the second count and how many votes both candidates received in the first count. A FraudFactor less than 1.0 but greater than zero indicates that fraud may have occurred favoring George Bush, and that George Bush received 1/ff times as many votes as expected in the second vote count, relative to how many votes Al Gore received in the second count and how many votes both candidates received in the first count. The FraudFactor definition can be extended to handle negative numbers for "new found votes". |
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